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The odd-wanting line in this graph is the one for home consumption of autos and parts as a fraction of GDP; the road starts to drop after 2002, only reversing in 2010. It is odd to me as a result of a graph of US vehicle gross sales is basically flat from 2001 to 2007 at between sixteen and 17 million vehicles per 12 months. Reading off Stuart’s graph above, the gross consumption line begins at about three.7% of GDP in 2001 and drops to around 2.8% in 2007, so roughly a 25% drop. Taking a look at BEA Desk 1.1.5. US GDP rose 36% throughout that period.
Complicating your train even more is the truth that individuals tend to hold their automobiles longer these days than they used to. That is largely as a result of quality has gone up, reducing the frequency wanted to buy a new automobile. I think this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the other factors you talked about.
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