Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about Common Motors to try to get at how much manufacturing job loss one could attribute to international competition versus automation and productivity increases. Various commenters objected that my assumptions have been too simplistic, significantly in neglecting the home content material in overseas autos and the importance of shifts within the provide chain over time.
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Complicating your exercise much more is the fact that individuals tend to preserve their vehicles longer these days than they used to. That is largely as a result of quality has gone up, reducing the frequency wanted to purchase a brand new automotive. I think this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the other elements you mentioned.