Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about General Motors to try to get at how much manufacturing job loss one might attribute to international competitors versus automation and productivity will increase. Varied commenters objected that my assumptions had been too simplistic, particularly in neglecting the domestic content in foreign autos and the significance of shifts in the supply chain over time.
Complicating your exercise much more is the truth that people tend to maintain their automobiles longer nowadays than they used to. This is in large part because high quality has gone up, reducing the frequency wanted to purchase a brand new automobile. I think this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the opposite elements you talked about.
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You can see the rise in imports from much lower than 1% in the 1960s to about 2% of US GDP in the mid 2000s (until the nice recession hit). The other interesting issue is that consumption of autos (as a fraction of the economy) began a serious decline in the early 2000s. That is going to complicate the evaluation which I’ll take up once more in the next submit.