Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about Common Motors to attempt to get at how much manufacturing job loss one might attribute to overseas competition versus automation and productivity increases. Various commenters objected that my assumptions have been too simplistic, particularly in neglecting the home content material in foreign autos and the significance of shifts in the supply chain over time.
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Complicating your exercise much more is the fact that people are inclined to keep their automobiles longer these days than they used to. That is in large part because high quality has gone up, reducing the frequency wanted to buy a new car. I believe this has way more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the opposite elements you talked about.
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