Mary T. Barra, the chief govt of Common Motors, with President Trump at a Michigan event last month to discuss automaking and job creation.
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The odd-trying line on this graph is the one for domestic consumption of autos and components as a fraction of GDP; the road starts to drop after 2002, only reversing in 2010. It is odd to me because a graph of US vehicle gross sales is actually flat from 2001 to 2007 at between sixteen and 17 million automobiles per year. Reading off Stuart’s graph above, the gross consumption line begins at about 3.7% of GDP in 2001 and drops to round 2.8% in 2007, so roughly a 25% drop. Looking at BEA Table 1.1.5. US GDP rose 36% during that period.
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Complicating your exercise much more is the fact that individuals are inclined to keep their automobiles longer these days than they used to. This is in large part because high quality has gone up, lowering the frequency wanted to purchase a new automobile. I believe this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the other elements you mentioned.