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Complicating your exercise even more is the fact that folks are likely to hold their cars longer nowadays than they used to. This is in large part as a result of quality has gone up, reducing the frequency needed to buy a brand new car. I suspect this has far more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the opposite factors you mentioned.
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You may see the rise in imports from much less than 1% in the Sixties to about 2% of US GDP within the mid 2000s (till the good recession hit). The other interesting issue is that consumption of autos (as a fraction of the financial system) started a critical decline within the early 2000s. That is going to complicate the evaluation which I will take up again in the next put up.